Putin "highly likely" to use nukes

Putin "highly likely" to use nukes

Ukraine’s very success on the frontline is causing people in Kyiv to worry. In the last few days, the city has been surrounded by a fog of gloom. One Ukrainian intelligence official told me: “It’s highly likely that Putin will use tactical nuclear weapons against us. He’s got nothing else left.” So did a second source. A third source is the deputy military intelligence chief, on the record. Vadym Skibitsky told reporters that the threat of Russian Army using tactical nuclear weapons was “very high".

To be fair, the “highly likely” line comes with an immediate request for the very best western air defence systems so it is possible that the Ukrainians are over-selling their plight deliberately. That said, the anxiety that Putin might use a small tactical nuclear weapon cannot be lightly dismissed. For what it’s worth, I don’t think that is going to happen in the immediate future. One analyst in Kyiv said that the longer the war the goes, the more it goes Ukraine’s way, the more likely the nuclear threat becomes real. Putin did his university thesis on international trade law and he likes some legalistic cover for his adventures. Four sham referenda in occupied oblasts or counties calling on Russia for protection from Ukraine could justify him pushing the nuclear button, in his eyes alone. The risks of him doing such a thing are unimaginable.

The counter-arguments are that if Putin does cross the nuclear rubicon, the West’s reaction will be ferocious. Russia’s effective allies – China, India and, to a lesser extent, Turkey – have been happy to trade with Russia while ignoring the blood on the hands of their partners. A tactical nuclear strike will make them think again. At home, such a strike may push Russia’s masses, uneasy but broadly passive in the face of Putin’s hyper-aggression, out onto the streets.

The bad news is that in an address to the nation on Friday, September 30, Putin made a series of extraordinary lies, turning his aggression into Russia’s victimhood, doubling down on his topsy-turvy view of the world, threatening not just Ukraine but also the West. As the master of the Kremlin faces a humiliating defeat in conventional warfare, it would be entirely in character for him to change the frame of reference by killing millions and irradiating Ukraine for centuries to come. I have studied this man for twenty-two years and written a book about him and, on balance, I do not believe that he will fire a nuke because the risks are too high. But good, smart intelligence people in Kyiv are saying that he will. The mood in the Ukrainian capital is bleak, lightened by Ukrainians' delight in black humour. 

Last night I was drinking with some friends in Kyiv and started banging on about the fears I heard of Armageddon. "Nah, we've just been talking about the ballet." Which ballet, I asked, falling into the elephant trap. "Swan Lake." 

Tchaikovsky's ballet is, of course, the music played when there is a coup in Moscow. Lif

e goes on...